KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

69%

54%

26%

20%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.3¢Risks 45.30u

WN2NO 54.7¢Risks 54.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.70u · WN2 −54.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	38.4%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	6.7%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	18.4%	26.5%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	45.8%	25.2%	21.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	14.4%	10.9%	45.6%	—	71.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	23.9%	95.6%	18.4%	—	47.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	83.6%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	33.7%	81.1%	21.8%	—	26.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	81.6%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	72.1%	52.5%	16.8%	—	13.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	56.8%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	50.0%	15.1%	14.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	65.8%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	15.4%	32.2%	28.2%	—	17.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	55.7%	42.5%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	21.8%	40.4%	24.0%	12.6%	33.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	44.0%	—	—	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	66.1°F	12.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	61.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	54%	60.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	59.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	55.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	56.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗