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KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
71%
AIFS
69%
ICON
54%
HRES
26%
WN2
20%
Consensus
44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 45.3¢Risks 45.30u
VS
WN2NO 54.7¢Risks 54.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.70u · WN2 −54.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:40+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T04:14:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:40+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:40+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:40+00:0038.4%95.2%18.5%33.0%50.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0038.4%95.2%21.5%33.0%50.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0038.4%95.2%21.5%33.0%50.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0038.4%95.2%21.5%33.0%50.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0038.4%95.2%21.5%33.0%50.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:0077.3%95.2%21.5%26.1%53.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0077.3%95.2%21.5%26.1%53.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0077.3%95.2%21.5%26.1%53.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0077.3%95.2%21.5%26.1%53.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:0077.3%71.3%19.7%26.1%53.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:0077.3%71.3%19.7%26.1%53.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:0077.3%71.3%19.7%26.1%53.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0077.3%71.3%19.7%26.1%53.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0068.6%70.9%19.7%26.1%53.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble71%66.1°F12.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single69%61.9°F5.0°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON54%60.1°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%60.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend46%59.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES26%55.8°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%56.0°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗