KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≤ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.8¢Risks 3.40u

EPSNO 93.2¢Risks 46.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.60u · EPS −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	33.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	15.2%	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	51.3%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	26.5%	18.4%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	6.9%	18.0%	20.9%	—	8.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	27.9%	33.7%	6.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	15.5%	0.0%	20.5%	—	4.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	8.4%	0.4%	15.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	0.7%	2.6%	17.8%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	1.8%	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	2.4%	17.2%	17.8%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	0.8%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	14.4%	5.3%	6.6%	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	1.1%	2.6%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	7.9%	2.5%	6.8%	14.7%	4.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	1.8%	—	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	13%	55.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	56.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	57.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	58.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	57.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.0°F	7.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 50°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-LE50
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Boise stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 50°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗