KBOI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

82%

81%

62%

51%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

WN2NO 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.10u · WN2 −30.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	60.3%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.7%	39.3%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	37.6%	96.7%	9.6%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	10.0%	87.6%	23.7%	—	76.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	97.9%	65.6%	89.7%	—	71.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	51.6%	52.4%	35.9%	—	63.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	72.1%	51.7%	59.9%	—	63.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	11.1%	73.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	50.0%	72.4%	43.0%	11.8%	75.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	69.8%	—	—	81.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	89%	63.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	62.6°F	7.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	60.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	62%	58.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	56.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	55.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 56°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗