KBOI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

82%

81%

62%

51%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

WN2NO 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.10u · WN2 −30.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	26.6%	71.4%	82.1%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	26.6%	71.4%	82.1%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	26.6%	71.4%	82.1%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	26.6%	71.4%	82.1%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	26.6%	71.4%	82.1%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	26.6%	81.1%	70.9%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	26.6%	81.1%	70.9%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	26.6%	81.1%	70.9%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	79.8%	81.1%	70.9%	62.7%	16.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	79.8%	80.9%	70.8%	62.8%	16.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	79.8%	82.1%	70.8%	62.8%	16.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	79.8%	82.1%	70.8%	62.8%	16.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	79.8%	82.1%	75.3%	62.8%	16.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	79.8%	82.1%	75.3%	62.8%	16.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	79.8%	82.1%	75.3%	62.8%	16.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	79.8%	82.1%	75.3%	62.8%	16.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	53.5%	82.1%	75.3%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	53.5%	82.1%	75.3%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	53.5%	82.1%	75.3%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	53.5%	82.1%	75.3%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	53.5%	82.1%	50.8%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	53.5%	82.1%	50.8%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	53.5%	82.1%	50.8%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	53.5%	82.1%	50.8%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	81.2%	82.1%	50.8%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	81.2%	82.1%	50.8%	89.0%	61.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	81.2%	82.1%	50.8%	89.0%	61.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	89%	63.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	62.6°F	7.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	60.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	62%	58.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	56.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	55.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 56°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗