KBOI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

71%

70%

65%

56%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.2¢Risks 71.25u

ICONNO 28.7¢Risks 28.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.75u · ICON −28.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	53.9%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.4%	33.0%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	31.1%	95.1%	6.9%	—	76.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	7.1%	83.5%	18.4%	—	70.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	96.7%	58.3%	85.8%	—	64.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	43.6%	44.4%	28.8%	—	55.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	64.7%	43.4%	51.7%	—	55.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	7.5%	65.8%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	41.3%	64.6%	34.6%	8.0%	68.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	61.5%	—	—	75.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	61.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	60.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	58.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	58.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	58.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	57.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗