KBOI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

71%

70%

65%

56%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.2¢Risks 71.25u

ICONNO 28.7¢Risks 28.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.75u · ICON −28.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	77.3%	62.2%	65.1%	31.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	77.3%	62.2%	65.1%	31.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	77.3%	62.2%	65.1%	31.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	77.3%	62.2%	76.0%	31.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	77.3%	62.2%	76.0%	31.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	77.3%	62.2%	76.0%	31.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	81.3%	62.2%	76.0%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	81.3%	62.2%	76.0%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	81.3%	62.2%	76.0%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	81.3%	62.2%	76.0%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	81.3%	62.2%	76.0%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	81.3%	62.2%	66.9%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	81.3%	62.2%	66.9%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	81.3%	62.2%	66.9%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	72.1%	62.2%	66.9%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	72.1%	62.2%	66.9%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	72.1%	62.2%	66.9%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:00	72.1%	62.2%	66.9%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	72.1%	62.2%	66.9%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	72.1%	62.2%	69.5%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	72.1%	62.2%	69.5%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	72.1%	62.2%	69.5%	47.2%	77.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	86.7%	62.2%	69.5%	47.2%	55.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	86.7%	62.2%	69.5%	47.2%	55.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	86.7%	62.2%	69.5%	47.2%	55.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	86.7%	62.2%	69.5%	47.2%	55.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00	86.7%	71.3%	70.5%	64.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	86.7%	71.3%	70.5%	64.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	86.7%	71.3%	70.5%	64.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	86.7%	71.3%	70.5%	64.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	86.8%	71.3%	70.5%	64.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	86.8%	71.3%	70.5%	64.8%	55.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	61.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	60.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	58.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	58.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	58.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	57.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗