KBOI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

49%

47%

46%

20%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.9¢Risks 41.90u

HRESNO 58.1¢Risks 58.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.10u · HRES −58.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	41.0%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.1%	21.8%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	19.9%	90.4%	3.3%	—	64.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	3.3%	72.8%	10.3%	—	56.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	92.7%	43.2%	75.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	28.8%	29.5%	16.9%	—	39.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	48.3%	27.9%	35.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	3.1%	49.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	25.5%	47.4%	20.2%	3.2%	51.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	43.7%	—	—	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	60.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	58.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	58.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	58.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	53.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗