KBOI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

54%

48%

40%

27%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.6¢Risks 59.60u

WN2NO 40.4¢Risks 40.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.40u · WN2 −40.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	34.8%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.1%	17.1%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	15.3%	87.0%	2.2%	—	57.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	2.2%	66.3%	7.4%	—	49.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	89.7%	35.8%	69.1%	—	42.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	22.4%	23.0%	12.3%	—	32.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	40.1%	21.3%	27.9%	—	30.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	1.9%	40.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	19.0%	38.8%	14.6%	1.9%	43.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	35.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	23.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	92%	69.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	60.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	60.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	59.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	57.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	56.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗