KBOI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

54%

48%

40%

27%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.6¢Risks 59.60u

WN2NO 40.4¢Risks 40.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.40u · WN2 −40.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:05+00:00	78.7%	38.1%	32.6%	64.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	78.7%	40.2%	32.6%	64.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	78.7%	40.2%	32.6%	64.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	78.7%	40.2%	22.7%	64.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	78.7%	40.2%	22.7%	64.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	78.7%	40.2%	22.7%	64.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	70.4%	40.2%	22.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	70.4%	40.2%	22.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	70.4%	40.2%	22.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	70.4%	40.2%	22.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	70.4%	40.2%	22.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	70.4%	40.2%	26.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	70.4%	40.2%	26.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	70.4%	40.2%	26.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	53.7%	40.2%	26.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	53.7%	40.2%	26.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	53.7%	40.2%	26.7%	47.6%	92.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	53.7%	40.2%	26.7%	47.6%	92.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	92%	69.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	60.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	60.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	59.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	57.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	56.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗