KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

54%

49%

30%

22%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

HRESNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.25u · HRES −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	25.7%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	95.8%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	0.0%	83.7%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	19.4%	79.6%	45.1%	—	72.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	77.4%	78.5%	58.7%	—	80.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	91.3%	74.2%	18.4%	—	76.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	73.9%	62.5%	25.5%	22.4%	80.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	55.7%	—	—	78.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	61.5°F	9.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	49%	60.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	57.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	55.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 61°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗