KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

79%

69%

49%

45%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 68.2¢Risks 68.20u

EPSNO 31.8¢Risks 31.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +31.80u · EPS −31.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:26+00:00	78.3%	50.0%	23.5%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	78.3%	50.0%	24.1%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	78.3%	50.0%	24.1%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	78.3%	50.0%	24.1%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	94.8%	50.0%	24.1%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	94.8%	50.0%	24.1%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	94.8%	50.0%	24.1%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	94.8%	50.0%	24.1%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	94.8%	50.0%	24.1%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	94.8%	44.0%	37.4%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	94.8%	44.0%	37.4%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	94.8%	44.0%	37.4%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	79.2%	44.0%	37.4%	80.6%	82.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	79.2%	44.0%	37.4%	80.6%	82.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	37.4%	80.6%	82.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	37.4%	80.6%	82.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	37.4%	80.6%	82.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	55.1%	80.6%	82.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	55.1%	80.6%	82.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	55.1%	80.6%	82.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	88.6%	45.1%	55.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	88.6%	45.1%	55.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	88.6%	45.1%	55.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	88.6%	45.1%	55.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	88.6%	45.1%	55.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	88.6%	45.1%	49.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	88.6%	45.1%	49.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	88.6%	45.1%	49.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	69.1%	45.1%	49.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	69.1%	45.1%	49.1%	78.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	69.1%	45.1%	49.1%	78.9%	91.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	71.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	66.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	64.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	63.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	61.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	60.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗