KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

79%

69%

49%

45%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 68.2¢Risks 68.20u

EPSNO 31.8¢Risks 31.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +31.80u · EPS −31.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	21.0%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	94.2%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.0%	79.2%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	14.9%	74.3%	38.2%	—	65.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	71.5%	72.8%	51.5%	—	74.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	87.8%	67.7%	13.8%	—	69.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	67.0%	54.8%	19.5%	16.9%	74.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	47.5%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	43.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	71.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	66.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	64.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	63.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	61.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	60.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗