KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

68%

59%

36%

35%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 51.6¢Risks 51.55u

WN2NO 48.4¢Risks 48.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.45u · WN2 −48.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	13.3%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	89.3%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.0%	68.2%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	8.2%	61.8%	25.7%	—	52.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	58.0%	59.4%	37.1%	—	61.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	78.4%	53.0%	7.0%	—	55.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	51.6%	39.0%	10.4%	8.7%	60.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	31.9%	—	—	57.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	66.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	65.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	64.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	61.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	61.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗