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KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
68%
AIFS
68%
EPS
59%
HRES
36%
WN2
35%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 51.6¢Risks 51.55u
VS
WN2NO 48.4¢Risks 48.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.45u · WN2 −48.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:00AIFS Single: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 55.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 69.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:00ICON: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:0055.2%33.4%32.6%69.2%86.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0055.2%33.4%32.6%69.2%86.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0055.2%33.4%35.0%69.2%86.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0055.2%33.4%35.0%69.2%86.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0055.2%33.4%35.0%69.2%86.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:0067.9%33.4%35.0%69.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0067.9%33.4%35.0%69.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0067.9%33.4%35.0%69.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0067.9%33.4%35.0%69.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:0067.9%58.7%34.9%35.8%68.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:0067.9%58.7%34.9%35.8%68.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0067.9%58.7%34.9%35.8%68.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0067.9%58.7%34.9%35.8%68.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0068.0%58.8%34.8%35.8%68.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0068.0%58.8%34.8%35.8%68.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON68%66.4°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single68%65.8°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%64.8°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%64.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend47%63.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES36%61.4°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%61.9°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗