KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

17%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.4¢Risks 13.40u

WN2NO 86.6¢Risks 86.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.60u · WN2 −86.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	53.9%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	23.8%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	0.4%	17.5%	3.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	14.0%	14.8%	5.3%	—	16.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	28.9%	10.3%	0.2%	—	11.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	4.7%	0.4%	0.3%	12.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	10.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	66.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	65.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	64.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	61.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	61.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗