KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

17%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.4¢Risks 13.40u

WN2NO 86.6¢Risks 86.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.60u · WN2 −86.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	47.9%	16.4%	0.2%	49.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:05+00:00	47.9%	16.4%	0.2%	49.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	47.9%	16.9%	0.2%	49.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	47.9%	16.9%	0.2%	49.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	47.9%	16.9%	0.2%	49.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	47.9%	16.9%	0.2%	49.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	47.9%	16.9%	0.2%	49.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	43.8%	16.9%	0.2%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	43.8%	16.9%	0.2%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	43.8%	16.9%	0.2%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	43.8%	16.9%	0.2%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	43.8%	16.9%	0.2%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	43.8%	16.9%	0.6%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	43.8%	16.9%	0.6%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	43.8%	16.9%	0.6%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	21.7%	16.9%	0.6%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	21.7%	16.9%	0.6%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	21.7%	16.9%	0.6%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	21.7%	16.9%	0.6%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00	21.7%	16.9%	0.6%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	21.7%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	21.7%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	21.7%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	15.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	48.5%	16.9%	0.7%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	48.5%	16.9%	0.7%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	48.5%	16.9%	0.7%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	48.5%	16.9%	0.7%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	48.5%	16.9%	0.7%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	48.5%	6.5%	1.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	48.5%	6.5%	1.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	48.5%	6.5%	1.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	19.8%	6.5%	1.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	19.7%	6.5%	1.2%	30.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	19.7%	6.7%	1.2%	30.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	19.7%	6.7%	1.2%	30.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	19.7%	6.7%	1.2%	30.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	19.7%	6.7%	3.6%	30.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	19.7%	6.7%	3.6%	30.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	19.7%	6.7%	3.6%	30.8%	37.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	32.2%	6.7%	3.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	32.2%	6.7%	3.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	32.2%	6.7%	3.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	32.2%	6.7%	3.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	32.2%	6.7%	3.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	32.2%	6.7%	2.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	32.2%	6.7%	2.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	32.2%	6.7%	2.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	12.2%	6.7%	2.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	12.2%	6.7%	2.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	12.2%	6.7%	2.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:05:35+00:00	12.2%	6.7%	2.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	12.2%	6.7%	2.6%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	12.2%	6.7%	3.0%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	12.2%	6.7%	3.0%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	12.2%	6.7%	3.0%	28.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	17.1%	6.7%	3.0%	28.7%	25.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	17.1%	6.7%	3.0%	28.7%	25.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	17.1%	6.7%	3.0%	28.7%	25.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	17.1%	6.7%	3.0%	28.7%	25.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00	17.1%	16.7%	1.8%	5.8%	25.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	17.1%	16.7%	1.8%	5.8%	25.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	17.1%	16.7%	1.8%	5.8%	25.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	17.1%	16.7%	1.8%	5.8%	25.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	17.0%	16.5%	1.8%	5.7%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	66.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	65.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	64.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	61.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	61.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗