KBOI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

87%

76%

62%

40%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

WN2NO 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.25u · WN2 −32.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	52.4%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	63.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.2%	56.7%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	85.1%	40.9%	0.3%	—	63.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	79.0%	54.4%	23.2%	3.3%	71.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	46.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	70.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	87%	69.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	65.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	63.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	60.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261026-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗