KBOI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

87%

76%

62%

40%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

WN2NO 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.25u · WN2 −32.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:05:35+00:00	92.8%	64.2%	52.3%	88.1%	85.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	92.8%	64.2%	52.3%	88.1%	85.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	92.8%	64.2%	43.0%	88.1%	85.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	92.8%	64.2%	43.0%	88.1%	85.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	92.8%	64.2%	43.0%	88.1%	85.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	95.6%	64.2%	43.0%	88.1%	86.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	95.6%	64.2%	43.0%	88.1%	86.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	95.6%	64.2%	43.0%	88.1%	86.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	95.6%	64.2%	43.0%	88.1%	86.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00	95.6%	75.5%	39.9%	62.5%	86.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	95.6%	75.5%	39.9%	62.5%	86.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	95.6%	75.5%	39.9%	62.5%	86.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	95.6%	75.5%	39.9%	62.5%	86.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	95.6%	75.5%	39.9%	62.5%	86.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	95.6%	75.5%	39.9%	62.5%	86.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	70.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	87%	69.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	65.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	63.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	60.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261026-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗