KBOI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

38%

23%

18%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

WN2NO 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.30u · WN2 −73.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	12.4%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	18.1%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	11.8%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	35.6%	5.1%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	25.4%	8.7%	1.4%	0.1%	18.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	5.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	50%	69.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	67.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	65.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	17%	63.0°F	6.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	61.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗