KBOI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

38%

23%

18%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

WN2NO 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.30u · WN2 −73.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:43+00:00	0.7%	31.6%	0.6%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	0.7%	31.6%	0.6%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	0.7%	31.6%	0.6%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	0.7%	31.6%	0.6%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	0.7%	31.6%	0.6%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:15+00:00	0.7%	34.5%	0.3%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	0.7%	34.5%	0.3%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	0.7%	34.5%	0.3%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	54.2%	34.5%	0.3%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	54.2%	34.5%	0.3%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	54.2%	35.1%	0.3%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	54.2%	35.1%	0.3%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	54.2%	35.1%	0.3%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	54.2%	35.1%	4.4%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	54.2%	35.1%	4.4%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	54.2%	35.1%	4.4%	48.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	47.2%	35.1%	4.4%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	47.2%	35.1%	4.4%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	47.2%	35.1%	4.4%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	47.2%	35.1%	4.4%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	47.2%	35.1%	4.4%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	47.2%	35.1%	6.6%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	47.2%	35.1%	6.6%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	47.2%	35.1%	6.6%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	52.8%	35.1%	6.6%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	52.8%	35.1%	6.6%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	52.8%	35.1%	6.6%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	52.8%	35.1%	6.6%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	52.8%	35.1%	6.6%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	52.8%	35.1%	4.0%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	52.8%	35.1%	4.0%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	52.8%	35.1%	4.0%	47.5%	59.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	58.8%	35.1%	4.0%	47.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	58.8%	35.1%	4.0%	47.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	58.8%	35.1%	4.0%	47.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	58.8%	35.1%	4.0%	47.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00	58.8%	23.4%	2.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	58.8%	23.4%	2.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	58.8%	23.4%	2.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	58.8%	23.4%	2.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	58.8%	23.4%	2.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	58.8%	23.4%	2.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:00	58.8%	23.4%	2.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T16:18:01+00:00	58.8%	23.4%	2.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T17:03:30+00:00	37.6%	23.4%	3.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	37.6%	23.4%	3.4%	18.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00	37.6%	23.4%	3.4%	18.5%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	50%	69.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	67.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	65.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	17%	63.0°F	6.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	61.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗