KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

90%

86%

70%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.9¢Risks 83.85u

EPSNO 16.1¢Risks 16.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.15u · EPS −16.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	7.3%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	95.1%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	94.5%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	4.2%	36.1%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	22.4%	35.6%	5.6%	—	26.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	14.0%	14.8%	19.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	71.1%	14.6%	2.7%	—	26.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	0.4%	20.1%	2.6%	—	30.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	0.3%	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	50.8%	56.6%	0.6%	—	57.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.9%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	3.8%	52.6%	77.2%	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	2.9%	55.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	1.5%	63.6%	62.7%	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	4.4%	53.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	96.8%	66.1%	37.6%	—	48.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	11.0%	68.3%	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	99.2%	63.1%	91.8%	—	67.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	98.1%	58.4%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	81.0%	58.7%	85.7%	—	87.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	99.4%	63.3%	1.1%	—	88.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	97.5%	64.8%	92.0%	66.9%	90.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	99.7%	76.6%	96.7%	—	90.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	99.8%	72.4%	91.0%	83.4%	93.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	99.4%	75.2%	96.0%	—	94.7%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	99.2%	73.9%	94.3%	80.9%	97.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	98.8%	76.8%	97.0%	—	96.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	98.7%	80.9%	97.7%	92.2%	98.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	79.8%	97.8%	—	99.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	99.8%	80.8%	97.6%	92.9%	99.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	99.1%	80.8%	98.1%	—	97.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0006
ICON	96%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0012
AIFS Single	90%	68.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0102
IFS HRES	86%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0185
IFS Ensemble	70%	66.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0888
National Blend	63%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1354
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗