KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

90%

86%

70%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.9¢Risks 83.85u

EPSNO 16.1¢Risks 16.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.15u · EPS −16.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:21+00:00	46.5%	34.9%	55.3%	14.5%	8.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	46.5%	33.1%	55.3%	14.5%	8.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	46.5%	32.9%	55.3%	14.5%	8.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	46.5%	32.9%	92.2%	14.5%	8.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	46.5%	32.9%	92.2%	14.5%	8.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	46.5%	32.9%	92.2%	14.5%	8.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	92.2%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	92.2%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	92.2%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	92.2%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:02+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	74.9%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	74.9%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	74.9%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	74.9%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	58.6%	32.9%	74.9%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	58.6%	32.9%	74.9%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	58.6%	32.9%	74.9%	40.5%	5.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:08+00:00	80.5%	47.3%	93.5%	87.8%	98.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	80.5%	47.3%	93.5%	87.8%	98.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	80.5%	47.3%	93.9%	87.8%	98.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	80.5%	47.3%	93.9%	87.8%	98.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	80.5%	47.3%	93.9%	87.8%	98.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	80.5%	47.3%	93.9%	87.8%	98.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	78.5%	47.3%	93.9%	87.8%	99.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	78.5%	47.3%	93.9%	87.8%	99.5%
2026-10-13T21:42:46+00:00	78.5%	47.3%	93.9%	87.8%	99.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	78.5%	47.3%	93.9%	87.8%	99.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	78.5%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	78.5%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	78.5%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	86.3%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	86.3%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:22+00:00	86.3%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:21+00:00	86.3%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	86.3%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00	86.3%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	86.3%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	86.3%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	99.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	88.0%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	79.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	88.0%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	79.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:41+00:00	88.0%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	79.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	88.0%	47.3%	92.3%	79.0%	79.4%
2026-10-14T10:31:57+00:00	88.0%	47.3%	92.3%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	88.0%	71.9%	97.5%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	88.0%	71.9%	97.5%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	88.0%	71.9%	97.5%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:24+00:00	89.4%	71.9%	97.5%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	89.4%	71.8%	97.5%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T15:11:54+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	97.5%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	97.5%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	97.5%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	97.7%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:17+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	97.7%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	97.7%	83.5%	79.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	87.0%	70.2%	97.7%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	87.0%	70.2%	97.7%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	87.0%	70.2%	97.7%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	87.0%	70.2%	97.7%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	87.0%	70.2%	97.7%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	87.0%	70.2%	97.5%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	87.0%	70.2%	97.5%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	87.0%	70.2%	97.5%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	89.9%	70.2%	97.5%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	89.9%	70.2%	97.5%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	89.9%	70.2%	97.5%	86.4%	96.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	89.9%	70.2%	97.5%	86.4%	96.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0006
ICON	96%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0012
AIFS Single	90%	68.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0102
IFS HRES	86%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0185
IFS Ensemble	70%	66.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0888
National Blend	63%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1354
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗