KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

80%

75%

74%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 84.9¢Risks 84.85u

EPSNO 15.1¢Risks 15.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +15.15u · EPS −15.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	91.0%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	89.9%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	1.9%	24.4%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	13.4%	23.5%	2.6%	—	16.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	7.4%	7.9%	10.9%	—	16.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	56.8%	7.6%	1.0%	—	15.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	10.8%	1.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.1%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	34.5%	40.1%	0.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.9%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.3%	35.4%	62.1%	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.9%	37.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.4%	45.4%	44.5%	—	23.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	1.5%	35.2%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	91.4%	47.1%	21.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	4.2%	49.0%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	97.2%	42.8%	81.0%	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	93.8%	37.5%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	62.9%	37.1%	69.9%	—	72.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	97.3%	41.0%	0.2%	—	73.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	91.5%	41.9%	79.3%	44.2%	75.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	98.4%	54.8%	89.2%	—	75.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	98.9%	48.8%	76.4%	63.4%	81.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	97.0%	51.3%	86.5%	—	83.4%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	95.7%	48.7%	81.8%	58.0%	88.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	94.2%	51.4%	88.2%	—	86.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	93.2%	55.8%	89.8%	75.5%	94.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	99.0%	53.0%	89.5%	—	94.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	98.4%	53.2%	88.3%	75.0%	94.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	93.7%	51.6%	89.3%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0019
WeatherNext 2	95%	70.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0021
National Blend	87%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0164
AIFS Single	80%	68.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0408
IFS HRES	75%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0630
IFS Ensemble	74%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0671
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗