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KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 15:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
96%
WN2
95%
AIFS
80%
HRES
75%
EPS
74%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 84.9¢Risks 84.85u
VS
EPSNO 15.1¢Risks 15.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +15.15u · EPS −15.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.4% · 2026-10-15T04:47:46+00:00AIFS Single: 78.4% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00AIFS Single: 78.4% · 2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:00AIFS Single: 78.4% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:47+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T04:47:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-10-15T04:47:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T04:47:46+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:47+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00IFS HRES: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-15T04:47:46+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:47+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:0010-15 04:4710-15 10:0610-15 15:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:47:46+00:0078.4%56.0%90.7%72.9%89.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:0078.4%56.0%93.1%72.9%89.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:0078.4%56.0%93.1%72.9%89.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:0078.4%56.0%93.1%72.9%89.3%
2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:0079.0%56.0%93.1%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:47+00:0079.0%56.0%93.1%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:0079.0%56.0%93.1%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:0079.0%56.0%93.1%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:0079.0%56.0%93.1%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:0079.0%56.0%95.7%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:0079.0%71.5%95.7%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:0079.0%71.5%95.7%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:0079.8%71.5%95.7%74.9%95.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:0079.8%71.0%95.4%74.9%95.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:0079.8%74.1%95.4%74.9%95.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON96%71.5°F3.5°F2026-10-15 00:000.0019
WeatherNext 295%70.4°F2.9°F2026-10-15 00:000.0021
National Blend87%68.0°F2.2°F2026-10-15 06:000.0164
AIFS Single80%68.8°F4.0°F2026-10-15 06:000.0408
IFS HRES75%68.0°F3.7°F2026-10-15 00:000.0630
IFS Ensemble74%67.9°F3.7°F2026-10-15 00:000.0671
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.1°F2026-10-15 03:000.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗