KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≤ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 16:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

17%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.8¢Risks 11.75u

WN2NO 88.2¢Risks 88.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.25u · WN2 −88.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	49.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	51.3%	9.0%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	15.8%	8.2%	43.0%	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	22.6%	21.5%	16.5%	—	11.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	0.7%	19.5%	50.8%	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	73.9%	12.3%	47.6%	—	6.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	75.7%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	1.7%	1.2%	65.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	31.1%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	33.8%	1.2%	0.2%	—	7.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	35.9%	0.9%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	44.5%	0.4%	0.4%	—	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	25.3%	0.7%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.0%	0.2%	1.7%	—	0.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	10.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	29.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	23%	57.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0543
IFS HRES	17%	58.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0303
IFS Ensemble	16%	60.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0262
National Blend	9%	64.0°F	7.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0083
AIFS Single	2%	63.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	<1%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 53°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-LE53
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 53°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗