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KBOS / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≤ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 16:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
23%
HRES
17%
EPS
16%
AIFS
2%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 11.8¢Risks 11.75u
VS
WN2NO 88.2¢Risks 88.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.25u · WN2 −88.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T07:47:37+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T15:26:22+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.3% · 2026-10-12T07:47:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.6% · 2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T15:26:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T07:47:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T15:26:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T07:47:37+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T15:26:22+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T07:47:37+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T15:26:22+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:0010-12 07:4710-12 12:2010-12 16:58
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:37+00:007.6%20.3%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:007.6%20.3%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:007.6%20.3%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:007.6%20.3%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:007.6%20.3%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:007.6%20.3%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:007.6%15.6%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:007.6%15.6%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:001.8%15.6%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:001.8%15.9%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T15:26:22+00:001.8%15.9%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:001.8%16.6%0.2%17.4%23.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:001.8%16.2%0.2%17.4%23.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON23%57.0°F4.8°F2026-10-12 00:000.0543
IFS HRES17%58.2°F5.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.0303
IFS Ensemble16%60.4°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.0262
National Blend9%64.0°F7.9°F2026-10-12 06:000.0083
AIFS Single2%63.1°F4.6°F2026-10-12 06:000.0003
NWS forecast<1%64.0°F4.5°F2026-10-12 14:000.0001
WeatherNext 2<1%64.0°F3.7°F2026-10-12 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 53°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261016-TMAX-LE53
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 53°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗