KBOS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

98%

92%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 96.2¢Risks 24.06u

AIFSNO 3.7¢Risks 0.94u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.94u · AIFS −0.94u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	97.6%	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	98.5%	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	93.3%	—	—	84.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	96.8%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	89.5%	95.5%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	99.0%	98.4%	22.4%	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	98.8%	38.5%	—	69.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	54.6%	68.4%	24.5%	—	69.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	46.8%	74.5%	94.7%	—	52.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	55.7%	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	39.3%	53.3%	55.8%	—	53.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	73.3%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	99.7%	58.7%	86.9%	—	55.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	81.6%	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	99.9%	99.7%	96.1%	—	81.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	99.9%	98.5%	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	99.9%	99.2%	99.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.4%	99.9%	99.5%	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	100.0%	99.6%	99.2%	—	99.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.1%	100.0%	99.9%	99.7%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	100.0%	99.9%	99.0%	—	99.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	—	99.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	100.0%	100.0%	98.8%	100.0%	99.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	100.0%	100.0%	98.7%	—	98.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	100.0%	99.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	100.0%	100.0%	98.9%	—	99.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	93.5%	44.0%	96.6%	—	94.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	6.6%	17.1%	1.8%	2.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	12.3%	1.1%	—	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	68.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	>99%	67.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	99%	61.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001
IFS HRES	98%	61.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	92%	60.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0056
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1901
National Blend	13%	52.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.7604

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗