KBOS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

98%

92%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 96.2¢Risks 24.06u

AIFSNO 3.7¢Risks 0.94u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.94u · AIFS −0.94u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:00:45+00:00	20.9%	70.9%	53.5%	26.6%	72.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:12+00:00	20.9%	70.9%	53.5%	26.6%	72.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:18+00:00	20.9%	70.9%	53.5%	26.6%	72.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:25+00:00	20.9%	70.9%	53.5%	26.6%	72.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:31+00:00	20.9%	70.9%	53.5%	26.6%	72.1%
2026-10-12T07:47:38+00:00	25.7%	70.9%	53.5%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	25.7%	70.9%	53.5%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	25.7%	70.9%	53.5%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00	25.7%	70.9%	53.5%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00	25.7%	70.9%	53.5%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:00	25.7%	70.9%	49.0%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	25.7%	73.1%	49.0%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	25.7%	73.1%	49.0%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00	47.6%	73.1%	49.0%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	47.6%	72.9%	49.0%	53.5%	64.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	93.8%	100.0%	98.8%	98.8%	100.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	93.8%	100.0%	98.8%	98.8%	100.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	93.8%	100.0%	98.8%	98.8%	100.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	93.8%	100.0%	98.8%	98.8%	100.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:35+00:00	92.5%	100.0%	98.8%	97.7%	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	68.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	>99%	67.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	99%	61.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001
IFS HRES	98%	61.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	92%	60.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0056
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1901
National Blend	13%	52.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.7604

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗