KBOS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

51%

21%

11%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

AIFSNO 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +69.70u · AIFS −69.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	91.7%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	94.1%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	88.3%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	71.8%	84.5%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	94.8%	92.3%	7.2%	—	41.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	93.6%	15.2%	—	40.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	25.8%	38.7%	7.3%	—	39.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	18.9%	44.4%	79.4%	—	23.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	13.4%	22.5%	24.5%	—	22.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	40.7%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	96.6%	25.5%	59.6%	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	50.0%	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	98.4%	96.8%	79.7%	—	48.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	98.4%	88.7%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	97.7%	92.1%	98.1%	—	93.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	98.8%	94.3%	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	99.2%	94.8%	91.4%	—	96.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	99.7%	97.4%	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	99.9%	97.2%	94.7%	97.4%	97.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	99.9%	96.9%	98.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	99.8%	97.1%	87.9%	—	95.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	99.9%	98.4%	88.6%	—	90.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	100.0%	98.3%	84.1%	98.3%	85.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	100.0%	98.5%	82.6%	—	82.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	99.9%	99.0%	87.4%	99.7%	88.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	99.9%	98.0%	81.8%	—	88.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	99.9%	98.8%	87.8%	99.6%	91.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	50.0%	4.8%	61.9%	—	51.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	55%	59.6°F	9.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2052
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2172
ICON	51%	58.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2440
National Blend	48%	58.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2725
WeatherNext 2	21%	54.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.6178
IFS HRES	11%	50.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.7957
AIFS Single	6%	50.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.8855

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗