KBOS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

51%

21%

11%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

AIFSNO 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +69.70u · AIFS −69.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:26:34+00:00	37.3%	59.9%	49.2%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:00	37.3%	59.9%	50.8%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00	37.3%	59.9%	50.8%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	37.3%	59.9%	50.8%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:00	24.8%	59.9%	50.8%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:00	24.8%	59.9%	50.8%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:00	24.8%	59.9%	50.8%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T03:44:24+00:00	24.8%	59.9%	50.8%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:36+00:00	24.8%	59.9%	50.8%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T05:15:57+00:00	24.8%	59.9%	21.4%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:12+00:00	24.8%	59.9%	21.4%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:00	24.8%	59.9%	21.4%	11.2%	91.8%
2026-10-11T07:31:29+00:00	52.3%	59.9%	21.4%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	52.3%	59.9%	21.4%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00	52.3%	59.9%	21.4%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:13+00:00	52.3%	59.9%	21.4%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:23+00:00	52.3%	59.9%	21.4%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T11:19:36+00:00	52.3%	55.1%	57.9%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00	52.3%	55.1%	57.9%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00	52.3%	55.1%	57.9%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00	26.0%	55.1%	57.9%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00	25.4%	55.1%	57.9%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:00	25.4%	54.7%	57.9%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	25.4%	54.7%	57.9%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00	25.4%	54.7%	57.9%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00	25.4%	54.7%	54.4%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00	25.4%	54.7%	54.4%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	25.4%	54.7%	54.4%	34.6%	91.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00	7.8%	54.7%	54.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	7.8%	54.7%	54.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00	7.8%	54.7%	54.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:56+00:00	7.8%	54.7%	54.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00	7.8%	54.7%	54.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00	7.9%	54.7%	21.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00	7.9%	54.7%	21.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00	7.9%	54.7%	21.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	5.9%	54.7%	21.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00	5.9%	54.7%	21.4%	10.8%	50.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00	5.9%	54.7%	21.4%	10.8%	50.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	55%	59.6°F	9.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2052
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2172
ICON	51%	58.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2440
National Blend	48%	58.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2725
WeatherNext 2	21%	54.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.6178
IFS HRES	11%	50.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.7957
AIFS Single	6%	50.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.8855

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗