KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

81%

72%

63%

54%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.0¢Risks 72.00u

HRESNO 28.0¢Risks 28.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.00u · HRES −28.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	56.6%	—	—	87.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	97.5%	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	94.7%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	58.1%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	50.7%	37.6%	16.2%	—	67.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	54.4%	68.3%	36.4%	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	22.2%	67.7%	31.6%	—	54.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	75.8%	90.3%	95.5%	—	63.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	2.7%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	98.4%	98.0%	91.3%	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	95.9%	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	93.5%	98.5%	86.4%	—	59.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	86.0%	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	80.4%	98.7%	64.4%	—	61.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	89.1%	98.6%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	85.8%	98.6%	71.3%	—	63.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	83.0%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	95.8%	98.0%	93.6%	—	79.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	84.4%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	95.0%	77.0%	85.7%	—	46.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	89.8%	73.3%	4.2%	—	70.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	95.8%	84.7%	91.5%	—	79.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	96.0%	94.5%	93.4%	—	83.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	98.5%	94.5%	90.5%	43.8%	79.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	96.5%	95.1%	85.0%	—	78.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	99.2%	99.2%	88.7%	50.0%	76.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	97.9%	98.6%	92.4%	—	77.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	97.9%	99.8%	93.7%	60.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	96.6%	99.6%	92.5%	—	71.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	90.4%	99.8%	91.1%	65.4%	78.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	92.1%	99.6%	97.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	55.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	54.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	53.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	72%	53.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	51.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	50.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	50.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 50°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗