KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

81%

72%

63%

54%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.0¢Risks 72.00u

HRESNO 28.0¢Risks 28.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.00u · HRES −28.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:00:46+00:00	98.6%	67.9%	94.0%	84.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:12+00:00	98.6%	67.9%	94.0%	84.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:18+00:00	98.6%	67.9%	96.8%	84.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:26+00:00	98.6%	67.9%	96.8%	84.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:31+00:00	98.6%	67.9%	96.8%	84.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T07:47:38+00:00	73.3%	67.9%	96.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	73.3%	67.9%	96.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	73.3%	67.9%	96.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00	73.3%	67.9%	96.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00	73.3%	67.9%	96.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:15+00:00	73.3%	67.9%	89.9%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	73.3%	63.1%	89.9%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	73.3%	63.1%	89.9%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	89.9%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	80.7%	63.0%	89.8%	54.2%	72.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	55.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	54.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	53.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	72%	53.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	51.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	50.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	50.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 50°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗