KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

88%

80%

51%

37%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

HRESNO 32.5¢Risks 32.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.45u · HRES −32.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	38.6%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	93.1%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	87.0%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	30.5%	19.9%	6.5%	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	33.0%	47.1%	18.4%	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	9.0%	45.4%	14.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	54.0%	75.8%	86.4%	—	39.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	0.6%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	93.4%	92.3%	76.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	86.3%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	80.4%	93.5%	67.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	65.8%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	56.4%	93.7%	37.3%	—	34.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	69.9%	93.0%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	63.4%	92.8%	43.2%	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	58.0%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	83.0%	90.1%	77.3%	—	52.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	58.4%	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	79.4%	46.7%	59.7%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	66.4%	41.0%	0.5%	—	37.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	80.1%	55.8%	69.0%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	80.1%	75.6%	72.7%	—	52.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	88.8%	74.4%	64.6%	13.7%	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	80.0%	75.2%	52.6%	—	42.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	92.1%	92.1%	58.0%	15.7%	38.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	83.6%	87.5%	65.0%	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	82.8%	96.0%	66.9%	20.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	75.2%	94.0%	61.9%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	54.7%	94.8%	56.3%	21.4%	34.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	56.6%	91.4%	74.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	99%	55.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0002
WeatherNext 2	98%	58.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	88%	57.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0135
ICON	80%	55.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0420
NWS forecast	59%	53.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS Ensemble	51%	52.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2401
IFS HRES	37%	51.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3919

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 53°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗