KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

88%

80%

51%

37%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

HRESNO 32.5¢Risks 32.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.45u · HRES −32.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:23+00:00	61.8%	44.4%	73.0%	36.3%	56.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	61.8%	42.5%	73.0%	36.3%	56.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	61.8%	42.4%	73.0%	36.3%	56.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	61.8%	42.4%	90.2%	36.3%	56.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	61.8%	42.4%	90.2%	36.3%	56.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	61.8%	42.4%	90.2%	36.3%	56.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	62.6%	42.4%	90.2%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	62.6%	42.4%	90.2%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	62.6%	42.4%	90.2%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	62.6%	42.4%	90.2%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:02+00:00	62.6%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	62.6%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	62.6%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	62.6%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	71.4%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	71.4%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	71.4%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T04:15:06+00:00	71.4%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	71.4%	42.4%	89.4%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	71.4%	42.4%	87.2%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T06:31:56+00:00	71.4%	42.4%	87.2%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:14+00:00	71.4%	42.4%	87.2%	64.8%	30.9%
2026-10-13T08:02:24+00:00	73.6%	42.4%	87.2%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	73.6%	42.4%	87.2%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	73.6%	42.4%	87.2%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:48+00:00	73.6%	42.4%	87.2%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	73.6%	42.4%	87.2%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	73.6%	40.5%	89.0%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:46+00:00	73.6%	40.5%	89.0%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	73.6%	40.5%	89.0%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T14:05:58+00:00	60.4%	40.5%	88.8%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	60.4%	40.5%	88.8%	83.4%	70.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:21+00:00	54.8%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	95.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	54.8%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	95.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00	54.8%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	95.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	54.8%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	95.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	54.8%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	95.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	56.0%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	87.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	56.0%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	87.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:41+00:00	56.0%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	87.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	56.0%	42.3%	94.3%	79.7%	87.3%
2026-10-14T10:31:57+00:00	56.0%	42.3%	94.3%	45.2%	87.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	56.0%	37.4%	97.7%	45.2%	87.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	56.0%	37.4%	97.7%	45.2%	87.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	56.0%	37.4%	97.7%	45.2%	87.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	74.3%	37.4%	97.7%	45.2%	87.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	74.3%	37.5%	97.7%	45.2%	87.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00	89.6%	35.0%	98.5%	36.7%	69.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	89.6%	35.0%	99.3%	36.7%	69.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:00	89.6%	35.0%	99.3%	36.7%	69.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	89.6%	35.0%	99.3%	36.7%	69.0%
2026-10-15T07:48:45+00:00	84.2%	35.0%	99.3%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	84.2%	35.0%	99.3%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	84.2%	35.0%	99.3%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	84.2%	35.0%	99.3%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	84.2%	35.0%	99.3%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00	84.2%	35.0%	99.6%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	84.2%	38.1%	99.6%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	84.2%	38.1%	99.6%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	96.0%	38.1%	99.6%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	96.0%	38.2%	99.6%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	96.0%	41.9%	99.6%	28.0%	70.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:21+00:00	89.8%	51.0%	99.2%	37.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	89.8%	51.0%	99.2%	37.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	89.8%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	89.8%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	89.8%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	89.8%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	86.2%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	86.2%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:34+00:00	86.2%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	86.2%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	86.2%	51.0%	98.7%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	86.2%	51.0%	97.9%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	86.2%	51.0%	97.9%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	86.2%	51.0%	97.9%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	88.4%	51.0%	97.9%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	88.4%	51.0%	97.9%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	88.4%	51.0%	97.9%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:33+00:00	88.4%	51.0%	97.9%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	88.4%	51.0%	97.7%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	88.4%	51.0%	97.7%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	88.4%	51.0%	97.7%	37.4%	79.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	88.4%	51.0%	97.7%	37.4%	79.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	99%	55.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0002
WeatherNext 2	98%	58.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	88%	57.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0135
ICON	80%	55.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0420
NWS forecast	59%	53.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS Ensemble	51%	52.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2401
IFS HRES	37%	51.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3919

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 53°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗