KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

78%

57%

22%

12%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

EPSNO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.00u · EPS −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	27.7%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	87.8%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	78.8%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	26.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	19.4%	11.5%	3.1%	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	21.0%	33.0%	10.3%	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	4.2%	30.9%	7.6%	—	20.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	38.2%	61.8%	75.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.2%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	86.2%	84.3%	62.3%	—	33.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	74.7%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	66.2%	85.9%	50.0%	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	48.2%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	38.2%	85.6%	21.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	51.9%	84.1%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	44.2%	83.5%	25.5%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	38.2%	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	67.0%	78.1%	59.2%	—	32.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	37.5%	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	60.8%	26.4%	38.2%	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	44.4%	21.4%	0.1%	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	60.4%	33.1%	46.5%	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	59.5%	53.6%	50.0%	—	29.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	72.4%	51.2%	40.1%	4.3%	22.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	57.7%	51.3%	28.0%	—	20.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	77.0%	77.0%	31.9%	4.6%	16.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	61.0%	67.5%	37.7%	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	58.6%	84.6%	38.6%	5.9%	16.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	47.0%	78.7%	32.5%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	25.0%	79.7%	26.3%	5.7%	11.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	25.4%	70.5%	43.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	59.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	57.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	57%	55.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	54.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	51.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	49.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗