KBOS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

78%

57%

22%

12%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

EPSNO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.00u · EPS −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:29+00:00	18.0%	63.9%	58.2%	63.0%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	18.0%	63.9%	58.2%	63.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00	18.0%	63.9%	58.2%	63.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:13+00:00	18.0%	63.9%	58.2%	63.0%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:23+00:00	18.0%	63.9%	58.2%	63.0%	—
2026-10-14T15:11:54+00:00	58.6%	20.0%	92.7%	30.2%	77.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	58.6%	20.0%	92.7%	30.2%	77.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	58.6%	20.0%	92.7%	30.2%	77.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	58.6%	20.0%	93.7%	30.2%	77.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	58.6%	20.0%	93.7%	30.2%	77.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	58.6%	20.0%	93.7%	30.2%	77.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	73.6%	20.0%	93.7%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	73.6%	20.0%	93.7%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	73.6%	20.0%	93.7%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	73.6%	20.0%	93.7%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	73.6%	20.0%	93.7%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	73.6%	20.0%	94.9%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	73.6%	20.0%	94.9%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	73.6%	20.0%	94.9%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	79.6%	20.0%	94.9%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	79.6%	20.0%	94.9%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	79.6%	20.0%	94.9%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	79.6%	20.0%	94.9%	23.0%	53.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	90.1%	27.1%	98.0%	15.2%	51.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	90.1%	27.1%	99.2%	15.2%	51.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	90.1%	27.1%	99.2%	15.2%	51.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	90.1%	27.1%	99.2%	15.2%	51.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	90.1%	27.1%	99.2%	15.2%	51.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	76.6%	27.1%	99.2%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	76.6%	27.1%	99.2%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	76.6%	27.1%	99.2%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	76.6%	27.1%	99.2%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	76.6%	27.1%	98.1%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	76.6%	27.1%	98.1%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	76.6%	27.1%	98.1%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	98.1%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	98.1%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	98.1%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	98.1%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:46+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	98.1%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:21+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	96.5%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	96.5%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	96.5%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	72.0%	27.1%	96.5%	42.0%	72.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	70.6%	27.1%	96.5%	42.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	70.6%	27.1%	96.5%	42.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	70.6%	27.1%	96.5%	42.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	70.6%	27.1%	96.5%	42.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	70.6%	12.0%	93.1%	42.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	70.6%	12.0%	93.1%	42.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	70.6%	12.0%	93.1%	42.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	70.6%	12.0%	93.1%	42.0%	57.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:35+00:00	76.9%	12.1%	93.1%	24.7%	57.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:03+00:00	76.9%	12.2%	93.1%	24.7%	57.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	76.9%	12.1%	93.1%	24.7%	57.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:01+00:00	76.9%	12.1%	93.1%	24.7%	57.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	76.9%	12.1%	97.9%	24.7%	57.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	76.9%	12.1%	97.9%	24.7%	57.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	76.9%	12.1%	97.9%	24.7%	57.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	71.4%	12.1%	97.9%	24.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	71.4%	12.1%	97.9%	24.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	71.4%	12.1%	97.9%	24.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	71.4%	12.1%	97.9%	24.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	71.4%	12.1%	97.9%	21.8%	56.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:12+00:00	71.4%	12.1%	95.9%	21.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	71.4%	12.1%	95.9%	21.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	71.4%	12.1%	95.9%	21.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	77.7%	12.1%	95.9%	21.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	77.7%	12.1%	95.9%	21.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:25+00:00	77.7%	12.1%	95.9%	21.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	77.7%	12.1%	95.9%	21.8%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	59.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	57.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	57%	55.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	54.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	51.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	49.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261018-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗