KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

70%

54%

19%

11%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

EPSNO 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.00u · EPS −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	8.3%	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	68.2%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	7.5%	84.5%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	4.0%	68.3%	1.4%	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	93.6%	41.3%	86.9%	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	95.8%	89.3%	93.2%	—	64.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	97.1%	93.6%	49.2%	—	62.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	2.1%	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	35.3%	94.4%	21.3%	—	37.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	79.9%	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	36.3%	94.1%	15.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	85.0%	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	45.4%	79.7%	79.7%	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	51.9%	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	79.7%	33.0%	87.9%	—	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	47.0%	29.9%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	46.9%	24.3%	81.7%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	46.8%	28.8%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	48.9%	24.7%	47.8%	0.0%	19.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	44.4%	36.7%	0.2%	—	14.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	43.0%	25.1%	23.3%	14.7%	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	38.1%	33.6%	14.5%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	30.9%	25.6%	19.1%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	29.1%	26.9%	23.8%	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	24.0%	34.3%	25.1%	11.3%	7.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	25.3%	37.7%	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	24.5%	26.8%	21.2%	8.9%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	65.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	60.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	58.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	54.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	54.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗