KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

70%

54%

19%

11%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

EPSNO 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.00u · EPS −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:09+00:00	89.0%	50.6%	97.5%	79.0%	95.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	89.0%	50.6%	97.5%	79.0%	95.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	89.0%	50.6%	98.8%	79.0%	95.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	89.0%	50.6%	98.8%	79.0%	95.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	89.0%	50.6%	98.8%	79.0%	95.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	89.0%	50.6%	98.8%	79.0%	95.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	91.6%	50.6%	98.8%	79.0%	96.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	91.6%	50.6%	98.8%	79.0%	96.3%
2026-10-13T21:42:46+00:00	91.6%	50.6%	98.8%	79.0%	96.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	91.6%	50.6%	98.8%	79.0%	96.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	91.6%	50.6%	99.6%	78.6%	96.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	91.6%	50.6%	99.6%	78.6%	96.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	91.6%	50.6%	99.6%	78.6%	96.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	90.4%	50.6%	99.6%	78.6%	96.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	90.4%	50.6%	99.6%	78.6%	96.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:22+00:00	90.4%	50.6%	99.6%	78.6%	96.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:03+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	94.5%	21.7%	84.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	94.5%	21.7%	84.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:01+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	94.5%	21.7%	84.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.5%	21.7%	84.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.5%	21.7%	84.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.5%	21.7%	84.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.5%	21.7%	54.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.5%	21.7%	54.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.5%	21.7%	54.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.5%	21.7%	54.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.5%	19.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.6%	19.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.6%	19.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	66.3%	11.4%	98.6%	19.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	70.4%	11.4%	98.6%	19.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	70.4%	11.4%	98.6%	19.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:25+00:00	70.4%	11.4%	98.6%	19.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	70.4%	11.4%	98.6%	19.1%	54.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	65.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	60.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	58.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	54.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	54.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗