KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

57%

16%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.8¢Risks 48.80u

EPSNO 51.2¢Risks 51.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.20u · EPS −51.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	6.2%	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	62.2%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	5.4%	80.2%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	2.7%	61.8%	0.9%	—	46.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	91.0%	34.3%	82.5%	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	93.7%	85.4%	90.3%	—	56.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	95.5%	90.7%	41.3%	—	54.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	1.3%	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	27.9%	91.6%	15.7%	—	30.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	73.3%	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	28.4%	91.0%	10.9%	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	79.1%	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	36.4%	72.6%	72.6%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	42.5%	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	72.1%	24.7%	82.3%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	37.2%	21.9%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	36.9%	17.0%	74.1%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	36.5%	20.5%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	38.2%	16.9%	37.1%	0.0%	12.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	33.6%	26.7%	0.1%	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	32.0%	16.8%	15.3%	9.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	27.3%	23.4%	8.7%	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	20.8%	16.6%	11.8%	0.0%	4.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	19.1%	17.4%	15.0%	—	3.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	14.9%	23.0%	15.7%	6.1%	4.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	15.6%	25.3%	15.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	14.6%	16.3%	12.2%	4.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	63.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	62.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	60.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	54.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗