KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

57%

16%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.8¢Risks 48.80u

EPSNO 51.2¢Risks 51.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.20u · EPS −51.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:38+00:00	26.6%	43.6%	82.7%	52.5%	30.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	26.6%	43.6%	82.7%	52.5%	30.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	26.6%	43.6%	82.7%	52.5%	30.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00	26.6%	43.6%	82.7%	52.5%	30.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00	26.6%	43.6%	82.7%	52.5%	30.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:06+00:00	65.2%	49.5%	87.0%	73.1%	25.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	65.2%	49.5%	87.0%	73.1%	25.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	65.2%	49.5%	84.8%	73.1%	25.9%
2026-10-13T06:31:56+00:00	65.2%	49.5%	84.8%	73.1%	25.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:14+00:00	65.2%	49.5%	84.8%	73.1%	25.9%
2026-10-13T08:02:24+00:00	83.6%	49.5%	84.8%	74.4%	93.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	83.6%	49.5%	84.8%	74.4%	93.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	83.6%	49.5%	84.8%	74.4%	93.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	83.6%	49.5%	84.8%	74.4%	93.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	83.6%	49.5%	84.8%	74.4%	93.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	83.6%	43.6%	96.0%	74.4%	93.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:46+00:00	83.6%	43.6%	96.0%	74.4%	93.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	83.6%	43.6%	96.0%	74.4%	93.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	85.0%	43.6%	96.0%	74.4%	93.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	85.0%	43.6%	96.0%	74.4%	93.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:21+00:00	86.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	95.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	86.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	95.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00	86.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	95.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	86.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	95.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	86.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	95.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	92.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	97.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	92.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	97.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:41+00:00	92.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	97.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	92.7%	44.7%	99.3%	73.9%	97.0%
2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00	92.7%	44.7%	99.3%	71.6%	97.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	92.7%	51.7%	97.9%	71.6%	97.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	92.7%	51.7%	97.9%	71.6%	97.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	92.7%	51.7%	97.9%	71.6%	97.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	84.4%	51.7%	97.9%	71.6%	97.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	84.3%	51.7%	98.0%	71.6%	96.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	86.3%	20.3%	48.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	96.6%	20.3%	48.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:24+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	96.6%	20.3%	48.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	96.6%	20.3%	48.7%
2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00	53.5%	50.0%	96.6%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	53.5%	50.0%	96.6%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	53.5%	50.0%	96.6%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	53.5%	50.0%	96.6%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	53.5%	50.0%	96.6%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00	53.5%	50.0%	96.4%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	53.5%	42.3%	96.4%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	53.5%	42.3%	96.4%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	90.0%	42.3%	96.4%	12.3%	42.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	90.1%	42.3%	96.4%	12.3%	42.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	96.4%	12.3%	42.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	96.4%	12.3%	42.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	99.6%	12.3%	42.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	99.6%	12.3%	42.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	99.6%	12.3%	42.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	99.6%	12.3%	42.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	51.7%	44.4%	99.6%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	51.7%	44.4%	99.6%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	51.7%	44.4%	99.6%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	51.7%	44.4%	99.6%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	51.7%	44.4%	94.7%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	51.7%	44.4%	94.7%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	51.7%	44.4%	94.7%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.7%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.7%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.7%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.7%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:46+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.7%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.4%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.4%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.4%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	53.5%	44.4%	94.4%	16.9%	51.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	52.8%	44.4%	94.4%	16.9%	78.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	52.8%	44.4%	94.4%	16.9%	78.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	52.8%	44.4%	94.4%	16.9%	78.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	52.8%	44.4%	94.4%	16.9%	78.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	52.8%	7.1%	90.4%	16.9%	78.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	52.8%	7.1%	90.4%	16.9%	78.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	52.8%	7.1%	90.4%	16.9%	78.3%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	52.8%	7.1%	90.4%	16.9%	78.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:36+00:00	57.4%	7.2%	90.4%	15.7%	78.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	63.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	62.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	60.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	54.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗