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KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 14 · 18:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
44%
AIFS
8%
HRES
7%
WN2
5%
EPS
5%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 24.3¢Risks 24.30u
VS
EPSNO 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.70u · EPS −75.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-11 18:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.6%————0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:001.8%————10.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:005.6%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————6.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:008.1%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:001.5%————7.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0012.8%————5.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0014.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:005.8%————3.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0016.5%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0048.4%————3.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0027.4%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0024.8%————3.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0020.7%————5.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:002.7%————3.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%————6.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.9%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.7%————5.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0018.1%—0.0%——5.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0020.2%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:008.5%————2.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0013.8%—0.2%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0013.7%—5.0%——5.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:009.2%—11.6%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%11.8%——2.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:003.8%—9.5%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%3.5%0.0%—1.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.8%—5.7%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.9%19.4%0.5%10.3%—1.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:003.0%—17.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:003.8%22.2%10.7%16.0%—1.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:003.2%—12.4%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:004.9%24.2%14.0%0.4%—1.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.6%0.0%15.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%12.9%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.5%2.5%12.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%9.7%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.5%2.9%13.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%1.5%1.5%—0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%1.0%0.0%2.3%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.0%0.0%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON44%70.6°F5.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single8%64.5°F5.0°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS HRES7%62.8°F5.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%64.9°F4.1°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%59.5°F7.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend4%62.0°F5.5°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
NWS forecast3%62.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 14:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 12 · 17:43 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗