KBOS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 14 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

EPSNO 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.70u · EPS −75.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	11.3%	5.1%	3.5%	3.4%	4.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	11.3%	5.1%	3.5%	3.4%	4.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	11.3%	5.1%	3.5%	3.4%	4.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:02+00:00	0.4%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	0.4%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	0.4%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	0.4%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	4.1%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	4.1%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	4.1%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:06+00:00	4.1%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	4.1%	5.1%	9.9%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	4.1%	5.1%	8.3%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T06:31:56+00:00	4.1%	5.1%	8.3%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:14+00:00	4.1%	5.1%	8.3%	10.1%	3.2%
2026-10-13T08:02:24+00:00	10.0%	5.1%	8.3%	12.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	10.0%	5.1%	8.3%	12.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	10.0%	5.1%	8.3%	12.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	10.0%	5.1%	8.3%	12.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	10.0%	5.1%	8.3%	12.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	10.0%	2.7%	19.1%	12.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	10.0%	2.7%	19.1%	12.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	10.0%	2.7%	19.1%	12.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	11.0%	2.7%	19.1%	12.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	11.0%	2.7%	19.1%	12.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:10+00:00	11.0%	2.9%	19.1%	12.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	11.0%	2.9%	19.1%	12.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	11.0%	2.9%	27.8%	12.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	11.0%	2.9%	27.8%	12.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	11.0%	2.9%	27.8%	12.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	11.0%	2.9%	27.8%	12.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	14.1%	2.9%	27.8%	12.0%	47.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	14.1%	2.9%	27.8%	12.0%	47.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:46+00:00	14.1%	2.9%	27.8%	12.0%	47.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	14.1%	2.9%	27.8%	12.0%	47.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	14.1%	2.9%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	14.1%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	14.1%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	12.5%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	12.5%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:22+00:00	12.5%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:21+00:00	12.5%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	12.5%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00	12.5%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	12.5%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	12.5%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	47.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	16.6%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	43.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	16.6%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	43.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:41+00:00	16.6%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	43.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	16.6%	2.8%	43.9%	11.7%	43.9%
2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00	16.6%	2.8%	43.9%	6.6%	43.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	16.6%	4.7%	19.1%	6.6%	43.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	16.6%	4.7%	19.1%	6.6%	43.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	16.6%	4.7%	19.1%	6.6%	43.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	7.9%	4.7%	19.1%	6.6%	43.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	7.9%	4.7%	19.1%	6.6%	44.0%
2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00	7.9%	4.6%	19.1%	6.6%	44.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	7.9%	4.6%	19.1%	6.6%	44.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	7.9%	4.6%	19.1%	6.6%	44.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	7.9%	4.6%	5.4%	6.6%	44.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	7.9%	4.6%	5.4%	6.6%	44.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	7.9%	4.6%	5.4%	6.6%	44.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	70.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	64.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	62.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	64.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	59.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	62.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261019-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 12 · 17:43 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗