KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

64%

30%

27%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.5¢Risks 38.45u

EPSNO 61.5¢Risks 61.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.55u · EPS −61.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	87.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	81.5%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	26.0%	88.6%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	85.1%	89.5%	34.3%	—	72.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	92.6%	86.1%	35.7%	—	47.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	27.7%	81.1%	25.1%	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	45.2%	85.5%	37.5%	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	5.5%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	30.8%	32.2%	45.8%	—	29.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	31.1%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	15.1%	26.9%	61.3%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	27.9%	29.4%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	23.0%	28.9%	54.6%	—	16.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	28.4%	47.2%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	30.4%	30.4%	39.4%	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	17.0%	31.7%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	19.7%	29.4%	34.0%	0.4%	10.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	36.5%	30.7%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	36.1%	28.2%	38.2%	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	48.9%	29.6%	0.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	43.0%	36.3%	32.0%	0.1%	7.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	58.4%	20.8%	37.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	56.2%	24.6%	42.6%	20.8%	8.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	52.6%	39.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	63.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	63.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	58.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	58.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	55.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗