KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

64%

49%

46%

37%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

EPSNO 39.3¢Risks 39.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.25u · EPS −39.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	38.4%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	66.0%	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	76.8%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	58.1%	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	86.6%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	98.8%	—	76.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	98.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	78.2%	92.8%	—	65.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	91.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	55.6%	62.4%	72.5%	49.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	69.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	50.7%	44.2%	67.0%	55.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	66.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	57.6%	51.5%	80.5%	51.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	37.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	31.6%	28.8%	72.6%	39.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	26.3%	37.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	31.5%	29.3%	57.5%	33.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	35.0%	31.1%	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	34.6%	30.7%	38.8%	29.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	32.6%	35.9%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	42.7%	33.0%	24.4%	22.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	31.8%	33.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	33.0%	30.4%	33.0%	18.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	26.5%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	32.1%	20.4%	26.8%	17.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	37.5%	8.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	35.1%	7.7%	21.3%	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	28.6%	14.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	58.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	56.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	56.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	55.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	54.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗