KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

60%

48%

46%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

HRESNO 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.70u · HRES −37.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	28.3%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	54.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	66.8%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	45.6%	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	78.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	97.4%	—	65.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	96.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	67.0%	86.8%	—	52.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	85.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	41.6%	48.6%	59.7%	35.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	56.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	36.4%	30.4%	52.9%	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	51.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	42.4%	36.5%	68.4%	36.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	24.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	18.9%	16.9%	57.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	14.8%	23.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	18.4%	16.8%	40.9%	20.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	20.8%	17.8%	—	15.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	20.2%	17.2%	23.4%	16.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	18.4%	20.9%	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	25.9%	18.4%	12.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	17.1%	18.4%	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	17.7%	15.9%	17.7%	8.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	17.7%	13.0%	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	16.3%	9.0%	12.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	19.8%	3.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	17.6%	2.4%	9.0%	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	12.9%	5.1%	7.5%	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	62.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	61.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	60.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	58.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	57.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	58.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗