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KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
78%
WN2
76%
ICON
60%
EPS
48%
HRES
46%
Consensus
59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.30u
VS
HRESNO 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.70u · HRES −37.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.1% · 2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00AIFS Single: 57.1% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00AIFS Single: 57.1% · 2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00AIFS Single: 57.1% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00AIFS Single: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00AIFS Single: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.0% · 2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:0010-15 04:4710-15 10:0610-15 15:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:0057.1%67.9%77.0%32.9%63.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:0057.1%67.9%78.2%32.9%63.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:0057.1%67.9%78.2%32.9%63.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:0057.1%67.9%78.2%32.9%63.4%
2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:0073.6%67.9%78.2%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:0073.6%67.9%78.2%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:0073.6%67.9%78.2%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:0073.6%67.9%78.2%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:0073.6%67.9%78.2%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:0073.6%67.9%76.0%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:0073.6%45.1%76.0%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:0073.6%45.1%76.0%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:0078.2%45.1%76.0%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:0078.2%45.1%76.0%46.4%59.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:0078.2%48.4%76.0%46.4%59.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single78%62.7°F5.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 276%61.8°F4.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON60%60.2°F7.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%59.0°F5.9°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%58.3°F4.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES46%57.9°F6.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend44%58.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗