KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≤ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 19 · 16:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

18%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 13.1¢Risks 13.05u

WN2NO 86.9¢Risks 86.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +86.95u · WN2 −86.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00	3.8%	7.2%	2.7%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	3.8%	7.2%	2.7%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00	3.8%	7.2%	2.7%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	3.8%	7.2%	2.7%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	3.8%	7.2%	2.7%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	3.8%	9.1%	0.9%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	3.8%	9.1%	0.9%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	3.8%	9.1%	0.9%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	7.2%	9.1%	0.9%	18.4%	15.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	7.2%	9.1%	0.9%	18.4%	15.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	7.2%	7.6%	0.9%	18.4%	15.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	7.2%	7.6%	0.9%	18.4%	15.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	7.2%	7.6%	1.3%	18.4%	15.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	7.2%	7.6%	1.3%	18.4%	15.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	7.2%	7.6%	1.3%	18.4%	15.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	7.2%	7.6%	1.3%	18.4%	15.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	10.7%	7.6%	1.3%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	10.7%	7.6%	1.3%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:34+00:00	10.7%	7.6%	1.3%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	10.7%	7.6%	1.3%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	10.7%	7.6%	1.3%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	10.7%	7.6%	3.2%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	10.7%	7.6%	3.2%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	10.7%	7.6%	3.2%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	9.9%	7.6%	3.2%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	9.9%	7.6%	3.2%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	9.9%	7.6%	3.2%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:33+00:00	9.9%	7.6%	3.2%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	9.9%	7.6%	2.8%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	9.9%	7.6%	2.8%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	9.9%	7.6%	2.8%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	9.9%	7.6%	2.8%	25.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00	10.4%	7.6%	2.8%	27.3%	16.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	10.4%	7.6%	2.8%	27.3%	16.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00	10.4%	7.6%	2.8%	27.3%	16.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	10.4%	7.6%	2.8%	27.3%	16.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	10.4%	7.6%	2.8%	27.3%	16.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	10.4%	9.2%	2.9%	27.3%	16.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	10.4%	9.2%	2.9%	27.3%	16.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	10.4%	9.2%	2.9%	27.3%	16.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	9.9%	10.0%	2.9%	27.2%	16.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	9.9%	10.0%	2.9%	27.2%	16.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	9.9%	9.9%	2.9%	27.2%	16.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	9.9%	9.9%	2.9%	27.2%	16.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	9.9%	9.9%	2.2%	27.2%	16.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:12+00:00	9.9%	9.9%	2.2%	27.2%	16.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:43+00:00	9.9%	9.9%	2.2%	27.2%	16.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	9.9%	9.9%	2.2%	27.2%	16.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.2%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.2%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.2%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.2%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	2.9%	23.7%	16.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00	8.0%	11.7%	1.4%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	8.0%	11.7%	1.4%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	8.0%	11.7%	1.4%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:53+00:00	8.0%	11.7%	1.4%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	7.9%	11.7%	1.4%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:08+00:00	7.9%	11.0%	1.4%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:04+00:00	7.9%	11.0%	1.4%	24.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	7.9%	11.0%	1.4%	24.7%	17.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	25%	54.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	54.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	54.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	55.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	57.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	58.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 51°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-LE51
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Boston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 51°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗