KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

76%

64%

47%

38%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

HRESNO 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.95u · HRES −42.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	97.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	92.6%	—	58.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	92.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	67.0%	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	52.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	18.0%	30.0%	—	34.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	26.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	17.5%	18.4%	36.2%	29.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	61.6%	14.0%	35.0%	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	17.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	17.9%	17.4%	30.3%	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	17.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	21.2%	50.0%	58.7%	25.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	7.9%	59.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	40.9%	74.9%	71.4%	30.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	26.7%	75.4%	—	44.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	42.2%	90.3%	84.4%	47.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	34.2%	93.2%	—	48.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	67.0%	94.2%	85.6%	60.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	95.8%	69.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	97.6%	86.4%	85.8%	74.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	81.7%	61.8%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	37.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	61.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	61.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	59.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	58.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	56.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	55.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 58°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗