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KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
76%
AIFS
76%
EPS
64%
ICON
47%
HRES
38%
Consensus
63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 57.05u
VS
HRESNO 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.95u · HRES −42.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:0010-15 07:4810-15 09:2010-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:0076.2%63.5%76.5%37.6%46.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:0076.2%63.5%76.5%37.6%46.8%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:0076.2%63.5%76.5%37.6%46.8%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:0076.2%63.5%76.5%37.6%46.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:0076.2%63.5%76.5%37.6%46.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 276%61.4°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
AIFS Single76%61.5°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%59.6°F6.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend54%58.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON47%56.7°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES38%55.5°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 58°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗